FX MORNING UPDATE 

USDINR opened at 82.78 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.63-82.83 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.65, loss of 21 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.86.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.73 on 26/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 82.69, loss of 16 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.85. Dec Euro/INR closed at 87.88, GBP/INR at 99.82 and Yen/INR at 62.21. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.15% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 564 bn as on Dec 9 th.  FX reserves have risen for the 5th straight week from USD 527 bn.

PAIRSRBI REF RATE (26/12)
USDINR82.73
EURINR87.94
GBPINR99.90
JPYINR62.39

In Dec, FII’S have bought Rs 2644 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 3228 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.14 lac Cr worth of Equities.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 207 points (1.17%) y’day. US markets were closed y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.65% y’day and Hang Seng declined 0.44% on Friday.

Euro is now at 1.0649, Pound at 1.2087, Yen at 132.94.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1810 and WT1Crude at USD 80.50/Brent at USD 85.25.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.75% and 3 m libor closed at 4.77%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.31%.

Economic news: Rupee gained in thin trading day. Global FX markets was in quiet mode as US and EU markets were closed y’day.

Data highlights: – – No major data.

Tuesday’s calendar : US S&P house price index

USD/INR   82.8382.63
EUR/USD       1.06491.06331.0586
GBP/USD       1.20871.20921.2018
USD/JPY       132.94133.16132.15

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency PairsPivotR1R2R3S1S2S3
EURO/USD1.06301.06551.06711.06961.06141.05891.0573
GBP/USD1.20761.20991.21161.21391.20591.20361.2019
USD/JPY132.77133.22133.66134.10132.33131.88131.44
USD/INR82.7082.7782.90 82.5782.50 

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency PairSupportsResistancesTrendRemarks
EURO/USD1.0470/1.03201.0740UPSIDE<1.0440
GBP/USD1.19/1.16501.2150/1.2350UPSIDE<1.19
USD/JPY130.50133.50/138DNSIDE>138
USD/INR82.58/82.3782.90/83.30UPSIDE<82.58
USD/CHF0.910.9375/09.9645DNSIDE>0.9375

Technicals: Spot closed above 50, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.36. 50 day moving average is at 82.19.200 day moving average is at 79.31. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.58/82.37 and important resistance is at 82.92. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:

PP: 82.72, S1:82.59, S2:82.50, R1:82.81, R2:82.94.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Exports be hedged on rally to 82.90+.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0735. Next major support is at 1.0440/1.0290. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0735. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2445 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.19. Important resistance is at 1.2350/1.2750.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 138. Important support is at 130.50. Major resistance is at 138/140.50/142.25.

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