USDINR opened at 82.80 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.64-82.82 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.76, loss of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.81.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.67 on 22/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 82.78, loss of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.82. Dec Euro/INR closed at 87.95, GBP/INR at 99.91 and Yen/INR at 62.66. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.05% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 564 bn as on Dec 9 th.  FX reserves have risen for the 5th straight week from USD 527 bn.


In Dec, FII’S have bought Rs 1642 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 2508 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.15 lac Cr worth of Equities.

Benchmark Nifty declined 186 points (1.01%) y’day. DOW declined 348 points (1.05%). Nikkei climbed 0.46% and Hang Seng climbed 2.71% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0604, Pound at 1.2045, Yen at 132.74.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1802 and WT1Crude at USD 78.50/Brent at USD 82.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.69% and 3 m libor closed at 4.77%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.31%.

Economic news: Focus is on US Core PCE data. This data is monitored by Fed for inflation. This week’s data calendar in Europe has been very light. ECB Vice-President sounded hawkish on Thursday, saying, “Increases of 50 basis points may become the new norm in the near term.” He said the ECB had to do more in the fight against inflation and voiced concern that the markets might underestimate the persistence of inflation. 

US GDP was finalized at 3.2% q/q as against prior data of 2.9% q/q.

Data highlights: – – US Weekly jobless claims declined to 216k.

-UK GDP was finalized at -0.3% q/q as against earlier data of -0.2% q/q.

Friday’s calendar : US durables order, personal income, spending and Core PCE.

USD/INR   82.8282.64
EUR/USD       1.06041.06581.0574
GBP/USD       1.20451.21481.1993
USD/JPY       132.74132.74131.64

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency PairsPivotR1R2R3S1S2S3
USD/INR82.7482.8482.92 82.6682.56 


Currency PairSupportsResistancesTrendRemarks

Technicals: Spot closed above 50, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.17. 50 day moving average is at 82.16.200 day moving average is at 79.10. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.58/82.37 and important resistance is at 82.92. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:

PP: 82.76, S1:82.67, S2:82.56, R1:82.87, R2:82.96.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Exports be hedged on rally to 82.90+.


EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0735. Next major support is at 1.0440/1.0290. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0735. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2445 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.2105/1.19. Important resistance is at 1.2350/1.2750.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 133.60. Important support is at 133.60/130.50. Major resistance is at 137.70/140.50/142.25.

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