USDINR opened at 81.66 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.41-82.77 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.48, loss of 13 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.61.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.53 on 07/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 82.55, gain of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.49. Dec Euro/INR closed at 86.68, GBP/INR at 100.37 and Yen/INR at 60.15. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.70% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 550 bn as on Nov 25th.  FX reserves rose by USD 2.9 bn as compared to previous week.

In Nov, FII’S have bought Rs 28042 Cr of Equities till date and have bought Rs 328 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.18 lac Cr worth of Equities. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 82 points (0.44%) y’day. DOW closed flat y’day (0%). Nikkei declined 0.72% and Hang Seng declined 3.22% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0501, Pound at 1.2185, Yen at 136.82.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1794 and WT1Crude at USD 72.55/Brent at USD 77.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.45% and 3 m libor closed at 4.77%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.27%.

Economic news: RBI hiked Repo rate by 35 bps to 6.25%. GDP growth for FY 22-23 has been lowered from 7% to 6.8%. Inflation is expected to be 6.7%. FX reserves has jumped to USD 561.7 bn from USD 527 bn. FDI inflows is around USD 22.7 bn in Apr-Oct period. FII inflows is around USD 11.5 bn since July.

RBI Governor said that Indian economy is resilient when compared to other major economies. He said that fight against inflation is far from over. He added that inflows will be robust once Fed indicates terminal rate. He said that transmission of rate hikes in deposit and lending rates have been very satisfactory.

Crude Oil hit a year low as OPEC maintained status quo on supply. US 2-10 Year Treasury yield inversion is 82 bps, an indicator of looming recessionary trends. However, recent US data implies 2.6% GDP growth in Q4.

Data highlights: – German industrial production declined -0.1% m/m.

Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims

 Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 50, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 81.62. 50 day moving average is at 81.97.200 day moving average is at 78.74. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 81.95 and important resistance is at 82.77/82.92. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:

PP: 82.62, S1:82.40, S2:82.26, R1:82.76, R2:82.98.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Exports be hedged on rally to 82.70/82.90+.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0635. Next major support is at 1.0290. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9535. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1150 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.2750. Important resistance is at 1.2075/1.19.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 152. Important support is at 130.50. Major resistance is at 137.40/140.50/142.25.

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