USDINR opened at 81.21 y’day and the pair traded in the 81.21-81.83 range. Spot USDINR closed at 81.80, gain of 49 ps for USD as against prior close of 81.31.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 81.58 on 05/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 81.96, gain of 53 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 81.43. Dec Euro/INR closed at 86.52, GBP/INR at 100.50 and Yen/INR at 60.64. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.93% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 550 bn as on Nov 25th.  FX reserves rose by USD 2.9 bn as compared to previous week.


In Nov, FII’S have bought Rs 28042 Cr of Equities till date and have bought Rs 328 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.18 lac Cr worth of Equities. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty closed flat (0.00%) y’day. DOW declined 482 points y’day (1.40%). Nikkei climbed 0.15% and Hang Seng climbed 4.51% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0497, Pound at 1.22, Yen at 136.90.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1784 and WT1Crude at USD 77.55/Brent at USD 83.40.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.60% and 3 m libor closed at 4.77%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.22%.

Economic news: U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November, with employment rebounding, offering more evidence of underlying momentum in the economy. US ISM Services PMI rose from 54.4 to 56.5 in November, above expectation of 53.5. New orders dropped slightly form 56.5 to 56.0. Employment rose from 49.1 to 51.5. Prices dropped from 70.7 to 70.0.

ISM said: “The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for November (56.5 percent) corresponds to a 2.3-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

Last week labor data was also stronger than expected. These data have triggered worries over Fed’s move to slow rate hikes. Fed is meeting on Dec 13 th-14 th. Tech heavy Nasdaq declined as Tesla announced 20% production cut in China.

RBI rate decision will be known on Wednesday. RBI is expected to hike rate by 35 bps.

Data highlights: – – US ISM(services) climbed steeply to 56.5 and factory orders climbed 1% m/m.

-EU PMI(services) was reported at 48.5 and Sentix investor confidence is at -21.

-UK PMI(services) was reported at 48.8.

Tuesday’s calendar : – German factory orders

-UK PMI(construction)

USD/INR   81.8381.21
EUR/USD       1.04971.05961.0480
GBP/USD       1.221.23461.2161
USD/JPY       136.90136.88134.12

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency PairsPivotR1R2R3S1S2S3
USD/INR81.6182.0182.23 81.3980.99 


Currency PairSupportsResistancesTrendRemarks

Technicals: Spot closed below 50, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 81.56. 50 day moving average is at 81.85.200 day moving average is at 78.74. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 80.50 and important resistance is at 81.95. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:

PP: 81.75, S1:81.52, S2:81.08, R1:82.19, R2:82.42.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Exports be hedged on rally to 82+.


EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0635. Next major support is at 1.0290. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9535. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1150 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.2750. Important resistance is at 1.2075/1.19.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 152. Important support is at 130.50. Major resistance is at 137.40/140.50/142.25.

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