USDINR opened at 81.13 on Friday and the pair traded in the 81.08-81.32 range. Spot USDINR closed at 81.31, gain of 10 ps for USD as against prior close of 81.21.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 81.18 on 02/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 81.43, gain of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 81.36. Dec Euro/INR closed at 85.79, GBP/INR at 99.93 and Yen/INR at 60.90. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.95% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 550 bn as on Nov 25th.  FX reserves rose by USD 2.9 bn as compared to previous week.

In Nov, FII’S have bought Rs 28042 Cr of Equities till date and have bought Rs 328 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.18 lac Cr worth of Equities. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 116 points (0.29%) on Friday. DOW climbed 34 points on Friday (0.10%). Nikkei declined 1.59% and Hang Seng declined 0.33% on Friday.

Euro closed the week at 1.0540, Pound at 1.2292, Yen at 134.30.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1811 and WT1Crude at USD 80.34/Brent at USD 85.40.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.50% and 3 m libor closed at 4.77%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.22%.

Economic news: US non-farm payroll employment grew 263k in November, above expectation of 200k. Average job growth was 282k over the prior three months, and 392k thus far in 2022. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%, matched expectations. Participation rate dropped -0.1% to 62.1%. Wage growth was strong with average hourly earnings up 0.6% mom, versus expectation of 0.3% mom.

Focus will be on US, EU and UK services data.

Data highlights: – -EU PPI declined -2.9% m/m.

Monday’s calendar : – US ISM(services) and factory orders

-EU PMI(services) and Sentix investor confidence

-UK PMI(services)

 Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed below 50, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 81.56. 50 day moving average is at 81.85.200 day moving average is at 78.74. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 80.50 and important resistance is at 81.95. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:

PP: 81.35, S1:81.24, S2:81.06, R1:81.53, R2:81.64.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Exports be hedged on rally to 81.60.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0635. Next major support is at 1.0290. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9535. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1150 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.2750. Important resistance is at 1.2075/1.19.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 152. Important support is at 130.50. Major resistance is at 137.40/140.50/142.25.

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