14/09/2018                                                                                      

USDINR opened gap up at 72.78 on Wednesday and the pair traded in the 71.91-72.790 range. Spot USDINR closed at 72.18, loss of 50 ps ps for USD as against prior close of 72.68.RBI reference rate was fixed at 72.57. Rupee has declined 14% from its high levels of 63.25 in this calendar year. Rupee gained on reports that PM has convened a meeting to discuss economic issues, crude price rise and Rupee fall. RBI intervention and export hedging also helped Rupee to recover sharply by one Rupee from its intraday level of 72.91.Sep USD/INR closed at 72.26, loss of 57 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 72.83. Sep Euro/INR closed at 83.81, GBP/INR at 93.95 and Yen/INR at 64.90.

FII’S have bought Rs 2739 Cr of Indian Equities in Sept till 05/9 . FII’S have sold Rs 3552 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sept till 05/9 . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 2740 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 42325 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.73% on Wednesday. DOW climbed 113 points (0.44%) Y’day. Nikkei climbed 1.30% and Hang seng declined 0.72% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1595, Pound at 1.3017,Yen at 111.56.    

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1202 and WT1Crude at USD 69.83.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.98% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 8.16%.        

Economic news: Indian Aug was trade deficit was reported at USD 17.4 bn, lower than July deficit of USD 18 bn. Exports climbed 19.2% to USD 27.8 bn, while imports grew 25.4% to USD 45.2 bn. Retail inflation fell to 10 month low of 3.7%, due to lower food inflation. IIP climbed 6.6% in July as compared to prior month data of 6.9%. In Apr-July period, IIP has climbed 5.4% vis a vis 1.7% in last fiscal during the same period.Mfrg sector grew 7% in July. Consuemr durables registered growth of 14.4%, Capital goods sector climbed 3%.

Data Highlights: – US PPI declined -0.1% m/m and CPI

-US weekly jobless claims

Friday’s calendar: – US retail sales and industrial production

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving         is at 70.88. 50 day moving average is at 69.58. 200 day moving average is at 66.22. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 71.20/70.70 and later at 70.30. Important resistance is at 72.90. Spot closed below its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Sep contract are:

PP: 72.43,S1:71.83, S2:71.42, R1:72.85, R2:73.44.                                                              

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1735 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.13. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1735. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2662 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3050 and later at 1.3250. Important support is at 1.2660.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 111.85. Next important support is at 109.70. Important resistance is at 111.85/ 113.