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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
  • 1,087 Comments
  • January 4, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.30 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.25-83.33 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.28, loss of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.32.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.32 on 03/01. Jan USD/INR closed at 83.36 y’day, loss of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.41. Jan Euro/INR closed at 91.15, GBP/INR at 105.25 and Yen/INR at 58.65. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.73% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 620.44 bn as on Dec 22 nd.  FX reserves climbed USD 4.47 bn, last week.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (03/01)

USDINR

83.32

EURINR

91.28

GBPINR

105.27

JPYINR

58.65

In Dec, FPI’S have bought Rs 56390 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 18392 Cr of debt . In this calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 148 points (0.69%) y’day. US S&P declined 38 points y’day (0.80%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.23% and Hang Seng declined 0.94% y’day..

Euro is now at 1.0927, Pound at 1.2671, Yen at 143.29.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2046 and WT1Crude at USD 73/Brent at USD 78.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.92% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.20%.

Economic news: Fed minutes showed central bank officials acknowledging progress against inflation over the past year. But the minutes also offered few cues on when the bank could potentially begin trimming interest rates as signaled during the meeting.The minutes showed policymakers concerned over a soft landing for the U.S. economy, and whether monetary policy was too restrictive.

Yield rally and technology stocks sell off extended. Though Fed could trim rates this year, timing is uncertain and markets are impatient. Focus is now on US employment data.

Data highlights: – – US ISM (mfrg) remained in contraction mode at 47.4.

Thursday’s calendar : FOMC minutes

-US ADP employment report and weekly jobless claims

-EU PMI(services)

-UK PMI(services)

USD/INR

 

  

 83.33

83.25

EUR/USD

1.0927

  

1.0966

1.0892

GBP/USD

1.2671

  

1.2678

1.2614

USD/JPY

143.29

  

143.74

141.86

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0927

1.0962

1.1001

1.1035

1.0888

1.0853

1.0814

GBP/USD

1.2651

1.2688

1.2715

1.2752

1.2624

1.2587

1.2560

USD/JPY

142.96

144.06

144.84

145.94

142.18

141.08

140.29

USD/INR

83.28

83.32

83.36

 

83.23

83.20

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.1015

1.1275

UP

DN<1.0735

GBP/USD

1.2610

1.2845/1.30

SIDE

DN<1.2610

USD/JPY

141

146/147.15/149.70

DN

UP>146

USD/INR

83.17/83.10

83.35/83.45

SIDE

SIDE<83.10

USD/CHF

0.8650

0.8820/0.8950

DN

UP>0.8820

Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and  50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.25. 50 day moving average is at 83.25.200 day moving average is at 82.69. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.35/83.45. Spot closed at the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Jan contract are:

PP: 83.37, S1:83.32, S2:83.28, R1:83.41, R2:83.46.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.35/83.40. Imports be hedged at 82.80/82.65 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1275. Next major support is at 1.0735/1.0665. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0735. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.

GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2610 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.2610/1.25. Important resistance is at 1.2845/1.30.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 151.75. Important resistance is at 146.60/149.70 and support is at 141.

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