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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
  • 905 Comments
  • January 3, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.27 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.27-83.35 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.32, gain of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.24.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.32 on 02/01. Jan USD/INR closed at 83.41 y’day, gain of 12 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.29. Jan Euro/INR closed at 91.66, GBP/INR at 105.71 and Yen/INR at 59.07. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.73% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 620.44 bn as on Dec 22 nd.  FX reserves climbed USD 4.47 bn, last week.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (02/01)

USDINR

83.32

EURINR

91.92

GBPINR

106.10

JPYINR

58.90

In Dec, FPI’S have bought Rs 56390 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 18392 Cr of debt . In this calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 76 points (0.35%) y’day. US S&P declined 27 points y’day (0.57%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.42% and Hang Seng climbed 2.61% y’day..

Euro is now at 1.0951, Pound at 1.2631, Yen at 142.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2063 and WT1Crude at USD 70/Brent at USD 76.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.95% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.20%.

Economic news: USD rebounded as Global Equities came under pressure following weakness in Apple sales. US Yields also jumped, supporting USD. Eurozone’s PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 44.4 in December, up slightly from November’s 44.2. Despite this minor uptick, marking a seven-month high, the index remained below the critical 50.0 threshold, signaling a continued deterioration in operating conditions across the sector. UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 46.2 in December, down from November’s 47.2. This marks the seventeenth consecutive month where the index has remained below the neutral 50 threshold, indicating ongoing contraction.

Focus will be US ISM(mfrg), FOMC Minutes, employment data and EU CPI.

Indian Dec GST collections climbed 10% y/y to Rs 1.65 lac Cr. Core sector growth eased to 7 month low of 7.8%. in Nov, it was at 12%.

Data highlights: – US construction spending climbed 0.4% m/m.

-EU PMI(mfrg-final) inched higher to 44.4 and UK PMI(mfrg-final) declined to 46.2.

Wednesday’s calendar : – US ISM (mfrg)

USD/INR

 

  

 83.35

83.27

EUR/USD

1.0951

  

1.1046

1.0938

GBP/USD

1.2631

  

1.2761

1.2609

USD/JPY

142

  

142.23

140.81

 Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0977

1.1016

1.1085

1.1125

1.0908

1.0869

1.0800

GBP/USD

1.2661

1.2713

1.2813

1.2864

1.2561

1.2509

1.2409

USD/JPY

141.67

142.53

143.09

143.95

141.11

140.25

139.70

USD/INR

83.31

83.35

83.39

 

83.27

83.23

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.1015

1.1275

UP

DN<1.0735

GBP/USD

1.2610

1.2845/1.30

SIDE

DN<1.2610

USD/JPY

141

146/147.15/149.70

DN

UP>146

USD/INR

83.17/83.10

83.35/83.45

SIDE

SIDE<83.10

USD/CHF

0.8650

0.8820/0.8950

DN

UP>0.8820

Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and  50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.27. 50 day moving average is at 83.27.200 day moving average is at 82.69. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.35/83.45. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Jan contract are:

PP: 83.38, S1:83.34, S2:83.28, R1:83.45, R2:83.49.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.35/83.40. Imports be hedged at 82.80/82.65 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1275. Next major support is at 1.0735/1.0665. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0735. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.

GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2610 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.2610/1.25. Important resistance is at 1.2845/1.30.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 151.75. Important resistance is at 146.60/149.70 and support is at 141.

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