USDINR opened at 75.34 y’day and the pair traded in the 74.83-75.34 range. Spot USDINR closed at 74.95, gain of 7 ps for USD as against prior close of 74.88. RBI reference rate was fixed at 74.95 on 22/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 75.06, loss of 9 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 75.15. Apr Euro/INR closed at 90.42, GBP/INR at 104.31 and Yen/INR at 69.46. RBI sold USD through PSU banks to stem Rupee weakness.

In April till date, FII’S have sold Rs 1653 Cr worth of Indian Equities and have sold Rs 2656 Cr worth of Indian debt.in 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt. In FY 19-20, FII’s sold Rs 10200 Cr of Equities and 47393 cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.77% y’day. DOW declined 321 points (0.94%).Nikkei climbed 2.38% and Hang seng climbed 0.47%% .

Euro is now at 1.2022, Pound at 1.3851, Yen at 107.94.  

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1787 and WT1Crude at USD 61.70/Brent at USD 65.60.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 1.55% and 3 m libor closed at 0.19%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.06%.

Economic news: ECB left monetary policy unchanged and “reconfirmed its very accommodative monetary policy stance”. Main refinancing rate, marginal lending facility rate, and deposit rate are held at 0.00%, 0.25%, and -0.50% respectively. The pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) will continue with an envelope of EUR 1850B, “until at least the end of March 2022”. It also expects PEPP to be carried out at a “significantly higher pace” during the current quarter.

ECB Chief said that while Eurozone real GDP could have contracted again in Q1, data pointed to a “resumption of growth” in Q2. Progress with vaccinations, should “pave the way for a firm rebound in economic activity in the course of 2021”.

Data highlights: – US weekly jobless claims declined to 547k, existing home sales dipped to 6.01 mn.

-EU consumer confidence improved to -8.

Friday’s calendar: – US new home sales

-EU PMI(mfrg), PMI(services)

-UK PMI(mfrg), PMI(services) and retail sales

 Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above all major moving averages. 20 day moving average is at 73.68. 50 day moving average is at 73.17.200 day moving average is at 73.78. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 72.30. Important support is at 74.62/74.28 and important resistance is at 75.35/75.50. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Apr contract are:

PP: 75.13, S1:74.79, S2:74.53, R1:75.39, R2: 75.73                       

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

 However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Upside break of 74 has ended Rupee’s multi month upward trend. Expect 73.80-75.50 trading range till either side is broken.

Importer hedging should be done on dips to 73.80 and exports hedging can be done closer to 75.50.

Exporters can hedge EURINR exposure.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.20/1.21. Next major support is at 1.1845. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.17. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2350.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 200 day moving average, but below 50 day average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3670 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4237. Important support is at 1.3675/1.3565.Important resistances are at 1.3920/1.40/1.4250.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 110.97. Next important resistance is at 111/112.20. Important support is at 108.35/107.50.

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