USDINR opened lower at 80.53 y’day and the pair traded in the 80.51-81.28 range. Spot USDINR closed at 81.26, gain of 45 ps for USD as against prior close of 80.81.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 81.23 on  14/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 81.35, gain of 46 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 80.89. Nov Euro/INR closed at 83.67, GBP/INR at 95.70 and Yen/INR at 57.87. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.35% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 529.9 bn as on Nov 4th.  FX reserves declined by USD 1.09 bn as compared to previous fortnight.

In Nov, FII’S bought Rs 12062 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 756 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.25 lac Cr worth of Equities. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 20 points (0.11%) y’day. DOW declined 211 points (0.63%). Nikkei is up 0.10% today and Hang Seng climbed 1.70% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0320, Pound at 1.1746, Yen at 140.35.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1770 and WT1Crude at USD 85.25/Brent at USD 92.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.87% and 3 m libor closed at 4.60%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.30%.

Economic news: WPI in Oct eased to 19 month low of 8.39%, down from 10.7% in Sept. Consumer price inflation slowed in October to 6.77% on weaker food price rises and a strong base one year ago but remained stubbornly well above the 6% upper limit of the Reserve Bank of India’s tolerance band. The retail inflation for the month of September was 7.41%. Food inflation eased to 7.01% from previous month reading of 8.6%.

Fed Vice Chairman said on Monday that it probably would be “appropriate soon to move to a slower pace of increases,” though added that there still was “additional work to do on raising rates.” Another Fed member pushed back against rate pause and added that monetary policy tightening “isn’t ending in the next meeting or two.”

Data highlights: – – EU industrial production climbed 0.9% m/m.

Tuesday’s calendar : – US PPI

-EU and German Zew survey.

-UK unemployment and claimant count change.

 Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.30. 50 day moving average is at 81.28.200 day moving average is at 78.07. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 80.50 and important resistance is at 81.28/81.65/81.95. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 81.10, S1:80.82, S2:80.30, R1:81.62, R2:81.90.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Exports be hedged at 82+ levels. Imports be hedged at 80.75.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0430. Next major support is at 1.02/1.01. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9535. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1150 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.1150. Important resistance is at 1.19.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 152. Important support is at 135.50. Major resistance is at 140.40.

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