10/07/2018
USDINR opened gap down at 68.56 y’day and the pair traded in the 68.78-68.56 range. Spot USDINR closed at 68.70, loss of 17 ps for USD as against prior close of 68.87.RBI reference rate was fixed at 68.65.July USD/INR closed at 68.86, loss of 19 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 69.05. July Euro/INR closed at 81.17, GBP/INR at 91.94 and Yen/INR at 62.39.
FII’S have bought Rs 496 Cr of Indian Equities in July till date . FII’S have bought Rs 854 Cr of Indian debt securities in June till date . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 2034 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 40436 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.74% y’day. DOW climbed 320 points (1.31%) y’day.Nikkei climbed 1.21% and Hang seng climbed 1.32% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1760, Pound at 1.3271,Yen at 110.76.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1260 and WT1Crude at USD 73.98.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.86% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.89%.
Economic news: Global markets were in a rally mode y’day. Pound embraced the departure of Brexit Minister Mr Davis, who was adopting an hardline approach to EU. However, Pound was volatile as the news broke out about the resignation of UK Foreign secretary. Indian IIP and CPI are the focus events for this week.
Data Highlights : EU sentix investor confidence climbed to 12.1, better than expectation.
Tuesday’s calendar: -German Zew survey
-UK industrial and manufacturing production
| USD/INR | 68.78 | 68.56 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1755 | 1.1754 | 1.1743 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3255 | 1.3321 | 1.3287 |
| USD/JPY | 111.02 | 110.47 | 110.40 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1760 | 1.1787 | 1.1817 | 1.1844 | 1.1730 | 1.1703 | 1.1673 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3271 | 1.3345 | 1.3435 | 1.3509 | 1.3181 | 1.3107 | 1.3017 |
| USD/JPY | 110.76
|
111.17 | 111.38 | 111.79
|
110.55 | 110.14 | 109.93
|
| USD/INR | 68.68 | 68.80 | 68.90 | 68.58 | 68.46 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1508 | 1.1853/1.1960 | DN | SIDE>1.1853 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3050 | 1.3475/1.3550 | DN | SIDE>1.3475 |
| USD/JPY | 109.35/108.10 | 110.90/111.40 | UP | DN<108.10 |
| USD/INR | 67.70 | 69.10 | UP | SIDE<67.70 |
| USD/CHF | 0.98/0.9650 | 1.0060 | UP | DN <0.9740 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 68.22. 50 day moving average is at 67.78. 200 day moving average is at 65.50. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 66.85 . Important support zone is at 67.70 and later at 66.85. Important resistance is at 69.10. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 68.80,S1:68.67, S2:68.49, R1:68.98, R2:69.11.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below all major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1850 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.1508. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.1508. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.3050 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3475 and later at 1.3550. Important support is at 1.3050.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.35. Next important support is at 108.10. Important resistance is 110.92 and later at 111.40.
