FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS

Major developments:

USD is now at 80.57. USDINR opened at 80.28. 1 year fwd premia is at 2.67% p.a. 

Fed’s aggressive posture extended USD rally against majors. Fed Chairman vowed to raise

 rates to tame inflation even if it is to increase unemployment rate and cause pain to

households. Fed raised rates by 75 bps and is expected to increase rates by 125 bps before

Dec end. Fed funds rate could cross 4.5% early next year.

USDINR crossed 80.10 high and is now at 80.57. RBI has already spent more than USD 100 bn

from its reserves. Considering the Global situation and easing of Oil prices, RBI may be

tolerant to Rupee decline. Expect USDINR to consolidate above 80.10 and move towards

80.80/81.20 levels in coming weeks. 

While USD export hedging may be deferred, imports be covered on decline to 80.25.

-USDINR is at 80.57 .Prior day’s close was 79.97.

-Indian Equity indices decline.

-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.23%.

-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 2.67%.

 USDINR @ 80.57, EUR/USD@ 0.9834, GBP/USD @ 1.1248, USD/JPY @ 144.84, EUR/INR @ 79.25, GBP/INR @ 90.66 JPY/INR @ 55.63.

Gold@1669, Brent Crude @ 90.30, Nifty @ 17643(-75), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.23%.

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